Market News: Condo sales still above average

Numbers may not lie, but they can certainly tell different versions of the truth.

Take the year-to-date sales numbers released by the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) for new homes and condos sold across the Greater Toronto Area between January and May. During that time, 8,924 new high-rise units were sold — down 22.4% from last year. Low-rise sales during the same period, though, were up 1.6%, at 8,040 sales.

All of that would seem to signify a bad year for the new high-rise market, and a good year for low-rise — except that’s not the case, says George Carras, president of market analysis firm RealNet Canada, which provided the data to BILD. “It’s down [from last year], but relative to the last 12 years it’s the second best year,” he says of the high-rise market. “In fact, when you do the average of the last 12 years, you’re about 37% above average. You’re still seeing on a relative basis very strong sales over the long term.”

Low-rise, though, is a different story. Though sales of new low-rise homes were higher than last year, they were down 25% compared to long-term averages, Mr. Carras says.
Put low-rise and high-rise sales together, though, and what do you come up with? A pretty average year so far, he admits — down 12.7% from 2011’s record numbers. Overall, sales from January to May were at 16,964 units sold, compared with long-term average sales of 17,293 during the same time. “You’re almost right on average in total,” he says.

“The main difference, of course, is the shift in the kind of housing. And that’s continuing.”

Another difference is price. With supply down in the low-rise sector, prices are rising there. RealNet calculated the average index price for a low-rise home at $607,893 in May, “the first time it’s ever gone beyond $600,000,” Mr. Carras says. In the high-rise sector, meanwhile, prices have been levelling off in general, though did rise in May to $439,549. “You usually look at a price gap between low-rise and high-rise, and in the long-term it tended to be about $78,000,” he says. “This is the widest gap on record.”

Affordability continues to drive the high-rise market, adds Jasmine Cracknell, partner with Toronto real-estate consulting firm N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited. The June 21 announcement by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, reducing the maximum mortgage amortization period to 25 years from 30 years, will see that trend continue, she predicts.

“Affordability will be much more critical … now somebody who qualified for a 700-square-foot condo before will have to get a 600-square-foot condo,” she says. “Some people’s expectations might have to be lowered in terms of what they can afford.”

The result, she adds, will be a market slowdown — the very intention of the change. Did Toronto, specifically, need it, though? Ms. Cracknell doesn’t think so. “It was slowing anyway,” she says.


Toronto Condos

Lisa Van de Ven, Special to National Post Jul 10, 2012 – 8:00 AM ET | Last Updated: Jul 5, 2012 6:04 PM ET

Canadians Now Richer Than Americans

On July 1, Canada Day, Canadians awoke to a startling, if pleasant, piece of news: For the first time in recent history, the average Canadian is richer than the average American.
According to data from Environics Analytics WealthScapes published in the Globe and Mail, the net worth of the average Canadian household in 2011 was $363,202, while the average American household’s net worth was $319,970.
A few days later, Canada and the U.S. both released the latest job figures. Canada’s unemployment rate fell, again, to 7.2 percent, and America’s was a stagnant 8.2 percent. Canada continues to thrive while the U.S. struggles to find its way out of an intractable economic crisis and a political sine curve of hope and despair.
The difference grows starker by the month: The Canadian system is working; the American system is not. And it’s not just Canadians who are noticing. As Iceland considers switching to a currency other than the krona, its leaders’ primary focus of interest is the loonie -- the Canadian dollar.
As a study recently published in the New York University Law Review pointed out, national constitutions based on the American model are quickly disappearing. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, in an interview on Egyptian television, admitted, “I would not look to the United States Constitution if I were drafting a constitution in the year 2012.” The natural replacement? The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, achieving the status of legal superstar as it reaches its 30th birthday.
Canadian Luck
Good politics do not account entirely for recent economic triumphs. Luck has played a major part. The Alberta tar sands -- an environmental catastrophe in waiting -- are the third-largest oil reserves in the world, and if America is too squeamish to buy our filthy energy, there’s always China. We also have softwood lumber, potash and other natural resources in abundance.
Policy has played a significant part as well, though. Both liberals and conservatives in the U.S. have tried to use the Canadian example to promote their arguments: The left says Canada shows the rewards of financial regulation and socialism, while the right likes to vaunt the brutal cuts made to Canadian social programs in the 1990s,
which set the stage for economic recovery.
The truth is that both sides are right. Since the 1990s, Canada has pursued a hardheaded (even ruthless), fiscally conservative form of socialism. Its originator was Paul Martin, who was finance minister for most of the ’90s, and served a stint as prime minister from 2003 to 2006. Alone among finance ministers in the Group of Eight nations, he “resisted the siren call of deregulation,” in his words, and insisted that the banks tighten their loan-loss and reserve requirements. He also made a courageous decision not to allow Canadian banks to merge, even though their chief executives claimed they would never be globally competitive unless they did. The stability of Canadian banks and the concomitant stability in the housing market provide the clearest explanation for why Canadians are richer than Americans today.
Martin also slashed funding to social programs. He foresaw that crippling deficits imperiled Canada’s education and health- care systems, which even his Conservative predecessor, Brian Mulroney, described as a “sacred trust.” He cut corporate taxes, too. Growth is required to pay for social programs, and social programs that increase opportunity and social integration are the best way to ensure growth over the long term. Social programs and robust capitalism are not, as so many would have you believe, inherently opposed propositions. Both are required for meaningful national prosperity.
Orderly Fairness
Martin’s balanced policies emerged organically out of Canadian culture, which is fair-minded and rule-following to a fault. The Canadian obsession with order can make for strange politics, at least in an American context. For example, of all the world’s societies, Canada’s is one of the most open to immigrants, as anyone who has been to Toronto or Vancouver will have seen. Yet Canada also imposes a mandatory one-year prison sentence on illegal immigrants, and the majority of Canadians favor deportation. Canadians insist that their compassion be orderly, too.
This immigration policy is neither “liberal” nor “conservative” in the American political sense. It just works. You could say exactly the same thing about Canada’s economic policies.
Canada has been, and always will be, overshadowed by its neighbor, by America’s vastness and its incredible versatility and capacity for reinvention. But occasionally, at key moments, the northern wasteland can surprise. Two hundred years ago last month, the War of 1812 began. Thomas Jefferson declared, “The acquisition of Canada, this year, as far as the neighborhood of Quebec, will be a mere matter of marching.” The U.S. was comparatively enormous -- with almost 8 million people, compared with Canada’s 300,000. The Canadians nonetheless turned back the assault.
Through good luck, excellent policy and even some heroism, Canada survived the war. But it has taken 200 years for Canada to become winners.


(Stephen Marche is a novelist and columnist for Esquire Magazine. His most recent book is “How Shakespeare Changed Everything.” The opinions expressed are his own.)
Read more opinion online from Bloomberg View. Subscribe to receive a daily e-mail highlighting new View editorials, columns and op-ed articles.
Today’s highlights: the editors on good news from Guantanamo, why Jamie Dimon’s bonus should be clawed back and how to put more electric cars on the road; William D. Cohan on Romney’s magical IRA; Albert R. Hunt on the candidates’ need to spell out debt-cutting plans; Anthony Luzzatto Gardner on Bain Capital under Romney.
To contact the writer of this article: Stephen Marche at stephenmarche@gmail.com
To contact the editor responsible for this article: Mary Duenwald at mduenwald@bloomberg.net



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What's Becoming of Toronto's Yorkville District

What's Becoming of Toronto's Yorkville District

Toronto has a love affair with the condo, with 28,466 new-build units purchased in 2011. Thousands more are planned. Suite size, price, amenities and architecture are important, but more and more, a building’s neighbourhood is being considered the ultimate draw. The second part of a lengthy series examining the GTA’s new condo ’hoods.

Bob Saunderson may know when Hollywood’s biggest names are strolling through his neighbourhood, but don’t ask him to point them out.

The British-born Yorkville resident says word spreads fast when a celebrity is in town, with the concierge at his Bay Street luxury condominium quick to divulge where the actors are wining and dining. Still, Mr. Saunderson can’t always keep up. In fact, he spent several mornings in a row chatting about soccer with a friendly young chap at one of the area’s eight Starbucks coffee shops. When the barista divulged that it was actor and Dancing with the Stars contestant David Arquette, “I still didn’t know who it was,” the 70-year-old chuckles. His friends are still ribbing him about it.

Though star sightings may be why many Torontonians flock to Yorkville — especially during September’s Toronto International Film Festival — people like Mr. Saunderson simply call it home.

The area has long been a coveted destination for the rich and famous, with residents tucked into swanky condos and million-dollar Victorian houses. Yet amidst the shoppers perusing the high-end boutiques, the professionals grabbing lunch between meetings, and the growing number of luxury hotel and condo projects in various stages of construction, the neighbourhood is trying desperately to hold on to its village feel.

The firehall, built in 1876 beside the long-gone town hall, still stands proudly on Yorkville Avenue and bears the original coat of arms (circa 1853). Nearby is the 105-year-old Yorkville Public Library, the 130-year-old Gothic revival Church of the Redeemer and the historic Heliconian Hall.

There’s a plaque on Pink Tartan’s boutique pointing out that it was once the sheriff’s house and the local jail. There’s still a hint of history at home and decor store Teatro Verde, where the first Mount Sinai Hospital once stood. Several houses along the attractive side streets reveal signs designating them heritage homes. And while Canadian singers such as Joni Mitchell, Gordon Lightfoot, Ian Tyson and Neil Young moved on long ago with the rest of the hippie generation, the steps in front of Over the Rainbow jean boutique still conjure up feelings of nostalgia for those on the cusp of midlife.

John Caliendo, co-president of the ABC Residents’ Association (an acronym for the boundaries of Avenue Road, Bloor Street and the CPR rail tracks), moved from New York into his Berryman Street home in the 1990s and has been carefully watching the dramatic changes taking place outside his door ever since. Though Yorkville was a popular place before he got there, he says the area was experiencing “a downturn in terms of its attractiveness” when he moved in. One “mega nightclub” was particularly irking residents and the area was losing its cachet.

But in the past few years — particularly when Whole Foods opened on Avenue Road — Mr. Caliendo has noticed new life in the air “that has completely revitalized traffic in Hazelton Lanes” and its surrounding streets. While many people living in the houses are singles or couples, he says parents working in the money management business have begun to move in. In a nod to the new kids on the block, the developer of the new Four Seasons Hotel is contributing funds to improve the playground and soccer field at the local elementary school that are used by students and the community.

Empty nesters, such as Mr. Saunderson, are also the new normal, drawn in by the dozens of condominium projects on the go or in planning stages. The buildings come in all shapes and sizes, from luxury low-rise structures like seven-storey 36Hazelton (rumour has it that actor Mark Wahlberg bought a place there) and 19-storey MuseumHouse (nightlife impresario Charles Khabouth is part-owner) to the 32-storey New Residences of Yorkville Plaza (the site of the iconic Four Seasons Hotel, which closes in March) and the long-awaited 70-storey One Bloor. Many dub themselves as luxury living, with suites priced into the millions of dollars.

Judging by sales, there seems to be no shortage of buyers, with many swapping large homes in such tony ’hoods as Rosedale, Forest Hill and the Bridle Path for a piece of the downtown action. They’re loyal to the local businesses, gathering at L’Unita restaurant for a midweek bite, Pangaea restaurant for Saturday lunch, and Zaza Espresso Bar for hot drinks and conversation with the sociable owner. They enjoy walking their dogs or people-watching in Cumberland Avenue’s Village of Yorkville Park, and they join visitors at the annual Icefest (taking place next weekend), at summertime’s Music in the Park, and at the fairly new exotic car show held in June.

“Our first-generation shoppers are moving down here, and our second and third generation shoppers are coming to visit them,” says Over the Rainbow owner Joel Carman, who has spent 37 years watching the changing landscape from the window of his landmark store. “In some cases, it’s a big circle, what comes around goes around. There’s only one Bloor Street and only one Yorkville.”

Sure, it hasn’t all been rosy for residents and businesses given the construction of the past two years that gave the main thoroughfare a facelift. The Bloor Street Transformation Project from Avenue Road to Church Street — a $20-million initiative fully funded by area businesses — has resulted in wide granite sidewalks and curbs, planting of 134 London Plane trees and 20,000 tulip bulbs, a sustainable soil cell system to promote optimal growth, and new bike rings and benches. A $1-million permanent art installation will go live at the Bloor/Yonge intersection later this year. Briar de Lange, executive director of the Bloor-Yorkville Business Improvement Area, calls it “the icing on the cake.”

“It’s a gift to the city from the Bloor Street community,” says Mr. Saunderson, chair of the Bloor Street Business Improvement Area that was formed exclusively to secure funding for the transformation project.

Now that the beautification project is complete, residents and businesses are continuing to focus their attention on the residential construction. Ms. de Lange says her group is monitoring the new developments to ensure they are “human-scaled buildings” that lessen shadow and impact to create a pleasant pedestrian-friendly look and feel.

“The challenge is maintaining a village charm,” she says of the high-rise construction.

Being a tight-knit bunch, both businesses and residents alike credit the BIA for its tireless efforts.

Mr. Carman is thankful for “some very bright and optimistic people” who are working hard to retain the area’s warmth and vitality. And it gives him hope that his stomping ground will maintain its allure into the future.

“If things are done properly and in scale and thoughtfully, I think Yorkville in five years can [still] be a wonderful area with great shopping, lots of vibrancy and outdoor cafes,” he says.

*Another great article from the National Post

Toronto Condos or Yorkville Condos

Toronto Real Estate Average House Price now 660,000$$$

The Canadian Real Estate Association has launched a new system for tracking home and condo sales prices aimed at giving buyers and sellers a more precise picture of what’s happening right in their neighbourhoods.

The new system will track Canadian and regional home sales and price escalations based on “benchmark prices.” Those benchmarks are based on quantitative factors (the number of rooms, bathrooms, age of home) and qualitative factors (proximity to schools, parks) and are intended to shine a light on highly localized factors that may be skewing prices up or down but not necessarily reflect market conditions.

CREA has also established a new MLS Home Price Index — similar to the Consumer Price Index which measures price inflation — that tracks prices relative to January, 2005 based on house type, be it single-family homes with one or two storeys, townhouses, row homes or condo apartments.

As of January, the benchmark price of a single-family home in Toronto hit $606,600 — $100,000 more than the $499,800 benchmark price for a similar home in the rest of Canada. That Toronto home cost 50.3 per cent more than it would have in January, 2005.

Over time, far more localized data will become available for MLS districts that should paint a clearer picture of neighbourhood trends.

“One of the key goals is to take a little bit of volatility out of housing statistics,” says Jason Mercer, senior analyst for the Toronto Real Estate Board. “It’s going to provide a good tool for consumers to understand where their home fits into the market.”

CREA will continue to release its traditional Canada-wide and regional breakdowns of average and median home prices, which it claims are often “misinterpreted” and can swing significantly, as national prices did last year when there was a rush of foreign investors snapping up homes in high-end Vancouver neighbourhoods.

Right now, just five major real estate boards across Canada are part of the new system — the GTA, Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary, and Greater Montreal.

Eight more boards will start using the new measures this year, and another eight boards next year.

Toronto Condos .  Richmond Hill Real Estate

How TIFF headquarters and area condos plan to celebrate Toronto’s biggest bash

Condo living can come with fabulous perks — access to a luxurious spa, 24-hour concierge services, maybe even a five-star restaurant in the lobby. But recently, in celebration of the Toronto International Film Festival, developers have been literally rolling out the red carpet to welcome buyers at a number of new condos in Toronto’s entertainment district.

“We have a history of celebrating the festival. Two years ago, we had an amazing time when we opened Festival Tower. Ivan and Jason Reitman were here with us for [their film] Up in the Air,” says Niall Haggart, executive vice-president for Festival Tower developer, The Daniels Corp.  “It’s a chance for us to show purchasers that they are buying a lifestyle that is connected to TIFF. We like to do that with a party.”

This year, Daniels partied again. On Sept. 9, it hosted a red carpet gala event for future residents and prospective buyers at Cinema Tower — the company’s latest project in the area. Located at Adelaide and Widmer streets, one block north of festival headquarters at the TIFF Bell Lightbox, Cinema Tower offers a TIFF “interconnectivity”package for purchasers.

Each Cinema Tower buyer receives a three-year membership to the Lightbox, with special privileges during the festival and throughout the year. (Gala opening tickets, anyone?) Cinema Tower also has a private theatre for residents, with programming by TIFF executives, which will show films unlikely to be seen at typical mainstream cinemas. The only thing missing is a bottomless bag of popcorn.

And what about that party? Beyond nibbles and bubbles, the evening was to include a circus-style aerial performance and pyrotechnics display. Special guest Piers Handling, TIFF CEO, and other TIFF hotshots mingled with the crowd. This year, purchasers received tickets to buzz film The Ides of March, starring George Clooney and Ryan Gosling.

“We want our buyers to see what the festival does for the city and how being a part of Cinema Tower means you’re connected to all of that,” Mr. Haggart says. “The opening of the Lightbox last year means we’re at the epicentre of TIFF. The whole neighbourhood feels incredibly vibrant.”

Other developers in the area are making the most of the energy TIFF brings to the neighbourhood. Aspen Ridge Homes will host a friends and family soirée on Sept. 15 to launch its Studio 2  project located at Richmond and Duncan streets, two blocks north of the Lightbox. (Construction will begin soon on the company’s Studio on Richmond development located next door to Studio 2.)

Aspen Ridge will roll out a red carpet for guests as well and project movies on the walls of its sales centre throughout the night. The party will include a DJ, an espresso bar, a creative popcorn menu and other movie-themed munchies.

“There’s so much happening in the area now because of TIFF and the Lightbox. We want people to see that transformation and to see the action on the street. It’s going to be a very cool party,” says Aspen Ridge marketing manager Christene DeGasperis.

There’s no denying TIFF’s migration south from its former Yorkville hub. Now the hoopla is in the heart of the entertainment district at King and John streets, where the Lightbox draws a crowd during the 10-day festival and throughout the year. Yorkville, typically abuzz at TIFF time, is quiet compared to previous years. New haunts that are closer to the action, such as the Thompson Hotel and The Ritz-Carlton, have trumped former Yorkville hot spots.

The Ritz is packed with actors, producers, directors and cinephiles from around the globe. “The Ritz brand attracts people from all over the world and the hotel is located in the midst of the all the festival happenings. We expect everything — the hotel, the restaurant and the bars — will be running at a very high pace,” says Graywood Developments COO Stephen Price.

While the Ritz will host a number of private industry functions throughout the festival, Graywood hosted a TIFF party of its own just up the street. The company’s Mercer Condos , located one block south of King on Mercer Street, held a bash for buyers at the presentation centre on Sept. 8.

The iconic red carpet was replaced by a pink one (The Mercer’s signature colour), and guests were greeted by a human Oscar statue, painted gold and posing outside the sales office. Food, drinks and a DJ kept the movie-themed party going inside.

The Mercer is in an ideal location for people who are attracted to the festival, smack in between the Ritz and the Lightbox. Though the building will stand in the centre of the festivities, Mercer is a small private street, tucked away from the hubbub.

“The Mercer is in a unique spot, just a block away from the centre of it all and people are recognizing that. The people who live here will be connected to everything in the neighbourhood but still have the privacy of a quiet little street,” Mr. Price says.

Graywood hosted its Mercer TIFF party to thank purchasers, entice prospective buyers and allow everyone to experience the location at the height of festival activity. “There was a time when King Street was not necessarily a first choice for condo purchasers, but over the past five years, the area has seen tremendous growth in housing and cultural development,” Mr. Price says. “All the pieces are coming together and the movement of TIFF into the neighbourhood has really cemented the draw to the area for people who want to live downtown. Why not be at the centre of the action?”


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Toronto house prices could last forever!?

Every time it seems the Canadian real estate market is about to be torpedoed by higher interest rates, events around the world conspire to keep a lid on increases and spur a new round of furious buying among house hunters.

But does that mean the housing boom will last indefinitely?

“The misfortunes of other nations prolonged the real estate boom here at home, but it is hardly a secret that Canadians, including the governor of their central bank, are becoming increasingly anxious regarding current housing valuations,” CIBC World Markets economist Bejamin Tal wrote in a note Thursday.

While the world’s economic and political situation may not settle down anytime soon, Mr. Tal said the risk to the Canadian housing market isn’t actually as high as some think. That’s because the focus is often on average prices, which make things look a lot scarier than they actually are.

“Is it a bubble? Glancing at popular metrics such as the price-to-income ratio or the price-to-rent ratio, it is tempting to conclude that the housing market is already in clear bubble territory and a huge crash is inevitable,” he wrote.

“Tempting, but probably wrong. When it comes to the Canadian real estate market at this stage of the cycle, any statement based on average numbers can be hugely misleading. The truth is buried in the details—and there the picture is still not pretty, but much less alarming.”

While the average house price is still climbing by 8.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis, that number drops to 5.6 per cent if you exclude Vancouver. Pretend Toronto doesn’t exist either, and you get to 3.7 per cent.

Within Vancouver, the gap between average and median prices is near an all-time high – meaning the high dollar sales are skewing the average prices higher.

“So what makes Vancouver abnormal is the high end of its property market,” he said.

“So looking beyond the average price numbers reveals a highly segmented and multi-dimensional market that is probably influenced by different forces. But even a multidimensional market can overshoot—and the likelihood is that prices in the Canadian market and its sub-segments are higher than what can be explained by factors such as income growth, rent and household formation.”

He said given those variables, the market is bound to correct. For that to happen, he said interest rates need to spike quickly and/or high-risk mortgages run into trouble.

“In Canada, a sharp and brisk tightening cycle is unlikely. The market expects a gradual increase in short-term rates in the coming years,” he said. “The rising number of mortgage holders that carry a variable rate mortgage will be the first to feel the pain, but if history is any guide, they will return quickly to the comfort of a five-year fixed rate the minute the Bank of Canada starts hiking.”

Meanwhile, he found that the number of Canadians who could run into mortgage trouble is relative low.

“Households with both low equity positions and high debt-service ratios, we found that this fragile segment of the market accounts for only 4.6 per cent of total mortgages – a number that has been on an upward trend over the past few years,” he said.

“Shock the system with a 300-basis-points rate hike and that number would rise to a still-tempered 6.5 per cent. Historically, even in that group, the default rate has been well below 1 per cent. Thus, short of a huge macro shock, there does not appear to be the risk of large scale forced selling that would typically be the trigger for a precipitous plunge in the national average house price.”

His conclusion? While house prices are likely to move lower as interest rates climb, the “national pace of correction is likely to be gradual. That could still entail a period in which housing underperforms other assets as an investment class, until rising incomes and a tame price trajectory brings the market back to equilibrium.”

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TREB: Ford needs to follow through on election promise

Within the next few weeks, my presidential term with the Toronto Real Estate Board concludes. While this occasion certainly presents an opportunity for a time of reflection, it is more important to keep looking forward and to keep the spotlight shining on key issues such as the Toronto Land Transfer Tax.

Realtors and the public continue to look forward to the fulfillment of the election commitment by Mayor Rob Ford and numerous city councillors to repeal the tax.

It is clear that the public expects the mayor to move forward with the commitment and it is unlikely that they will forget about this.

This is a significant tax: it costs the average Toronto homebuyer almost $6,500 and, when added to the Provincial Land Transfer Tax, average Toronto homebuyers face almost $14,000 in land transfer taxes. Realtors look forward to working with the mayor and city council on a reasonable approach to deliver on this promise.

TREB has consistently opposed the tax as an unfair levy that hurts Toronto’s economy. TREB strongly believes that the commitment by Ford during and after the election campaign to repeal the tax was, and is, sensible.

Recently, the city’s budget chief has pointed out the budgetary challenges facing the city. Realtors believe that city council is moving in the right direction by conducting a comprehensive review of city services; we also strongly believe that the commitment to repeal the Toronto Land Transfer Tax can, and should, move forward.

A recent public opinion poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs for TREB found that 75 per cent of Torontonians support Ford’s commitment to repeal the tax.

In light of the budget chief’s recent comments, the poll contained interesting results. In particular, even when asked to consider the city’s expected budget shortfall, the public’s support for the repeal of the tax remains very strong, with 68 per cent of Torontonians believing that the mayor should follow through on this commitment, despite the vity’s budget challenges.

The poll also found that the public is paying attention to this issue: 61 per cent of respondents were aware that Ford has committed to repeal the tax.

We have an obligation to protect the affordability of home ownership for future generations. From job creation to providing a healthy and stable environment for raising a family, home ownership matters to people, communities and Ontario.

Toronto Condos